It's been a cold, stormy week for parts of the West, including here in Utah. Most of the state saw some snowfall, including St. George, which saw periods of snow and sleet the last couple of days. The valleys south of Nephi did the best, with up to 6-8 inches in spots along the I-15 corridor down to Cedar City. Snow along the Wasatch Front was much lighter, but there were localized snow amounts up to 4-5 inches. Most of the lower Salt Lake and Utah Valleys had less than 2 inches. Here's a look at the 72-hour liquid precipitation amounts:
You can see, the highest precipitation amounts were in the southern part of the state. Brian Head Ski Resort had about 3 feet of snow, impressive! Did this improve the snow water equivalent (SWE) values for the state this season?
Notice the green values (close to 100%) in the south half of the state. Not bad! This storm definitely helped the deficit. The northern half of the state, especially the Wasatch Mountains, are still at only roughly 75% of normal. More storms are needed!
Are there prospects for snow in the near future? We have a weak trough moving across the north tonight:
It's a weak trough, and from a dry northerly direction. Temperatures aloft a quite cold, so there could be a little lake enhancement off the Great Salt Lake. It won't help the mountains much, but could bring light accumulations to some Wasatch Front Valleys through Friday morning. Here's a high resolution forecast model of snow accumulation:
Again, low level moisture is limited, but areas north of Salt Lake City to around Ogden could see 1-3 inches through midday Friday. Similar amounts in the mountains, perhaps up to 6 inches east of Ogden.
We have one of the coldest mornings of the year on the way. Then, a ridge begins to build, with dry and gradually moderating temperatures into next week.
Close to 10F at the SLC Airport Saturday morning, burr!
So, will the dry pattern continue, or will we get more storms? Fortunately, looking about a week out toward the 4-5th of March, a snowy pattern could re-emerge. A trough could arrive around that time, off the Pacific Ocean, with decent moisture.
Ensembles are a good tool to use looking at the extended forecast. The Euro model ensembles are 50 different "tweaked" runs of the same model, to account for subtle errors. This gives a better range of possible outcomes. What does it show for snowfall at SLC?
This chart can be a bit confusing, so let me explain. It reads left to right along the bottom. The green line is what you should follow, it's the average 24-hour snow amounts of the 50 runs. Notice the uptick around Friday-Saturday, March 4-5th. About 2 inches. Thick bars are ranges for most runs, with thin lines being outliers. Amounts could be slightly higher or lower.
There is also more activity indicated for the following week. Potentially, more winter storms!
What does the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have to say? It appears they agree, the 8-14 day outlook calls for below average temperatures and slightly above average precipitation.
