A strong upper ridge continues to dominate just offshore, blocking moist storms from reaching most of the Western states. After promising December snowfall had boosted snowpack to well above average, January was a huge disappointment with well below average storm activity. This dry pattern has now extended through the first week of February 2022. And I see little change in the current pattern. Take a look at the ridge still sitting offshore, not good!
There's been some weak systems bringing rain to the Pacific Northwest, but even that region has not seen particularly wet conditions in recent weeks. Take a look first at precipitation across the country as a percentage of average over the past 30 days:
Clearly, below average precipitation the past 30 days over much of the West, and even Central parts of the country. How is snowpack faring? Here's the latest snow water equivalent map-- the trend since my last post is not good!
Some portions of the Great Basin region and Rockies are now as low as 60-70% of average, and many locations are nearing 85%. This means less water during the spring run-off flowing into our reservoirs, if we don't get more storms-- Not the trend we want to see. It could be worse. Generally, Utah ski areas are in fairly good shape. Here's the water year snowfall (Oct 1st 2021-current) at Alta Ski Resort:
Nearly 200 inches so far, about 50" short of average by this date. This is not terrible, but the gap appears likely to worsen.
Mountain snowfall averages start to decline in March and much quicker in April. If we don't get some moist storms in the West by the end of February, it is quite likely we will end another season with below average snowpack in much of the interior West, including Utah.
So, do we have a chance of wintry weather returning for the second half of February? Sadly, the model trends are not promising the next 7-10 days. Little or no precipitation expected in Utah through mid-February. Temperatures will moderate in the Salt Lake Valley compared to last week's sub-freezing high temperatures, here's the model forecast at SLC:
Not promising either. The ridge and positive anomalies need to be further west, allowing the trough over the Central U.S. to shift over the West. Some models have shown some chance of this occurring toward the end of the month, but the signal is inconsistent and weak. I would say the chance of a major pattern change the last week of February is possible, but a fairly low probability. The latest Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook is also pessimistic, mirroring my take on the pattern the next couple of weeks:
I hate prolonged drought patterns, so I thought I would end with a quick take on changes that are expected for next year's water season. This is the second winter in a row with the ENSO cycle being in La Niña phase. Historically, this does tend to cause blocking ridges over the Eastern Pacific, and cause variable jet streams. By summer, we will be heading into ENSO Neutral conditions, which has a good chance of persisting through next winter:
Predicting the ENSO phase for the next season is not typically reliable until we reach the summer months. Forecasts improve greatly by that point. However, given that we just experienced a double dip La Niña, my bets are on Neutral ENSO conditions next winter. What does that look like for the West? Here's a 30-year average composite of temperatures and precipitation typical for ENSO Neutral winter months:
Unfortunately, drier conditions are still common for California and the extreme south part of the Southwest (El Niño's tend to be wet for those areas). But, the signal for the interior West, including Utah, is generally for average winter precipitation. There's some reason to hope for better snowpack next year than this current season.
And, just maybe, we will luck out with a wet 2022 spring, limiting drought severity this summer.
