A Quick Update on Next Week's Weather Change

I still see the potential for a storm early next week, with snow in the valleys and mountains of Utah. As mentioned in the previous post, this could usher in a change to more active wintry weather. But, uncertainty has grown today in both the details and even the evolution of large scale features next week. A system is still expected to affect Utah next Monday and Tuesday. Details are still up in the air, so I can't yet offer specifics on potential snow amounts. Not yet! 

There was a shift in nearly all the latest models today, trending toward a stronger ridge closer to the U.S./B.C. Coasts next week. This is not good news for getting decent snowfall into Utah. Here is what the GFS 500 mb height anomaly looks like for the first 10 days of February:

 

Notice the ridge anomalies (yellows) reach the West Coast of North America and the long wave trough is centered further inland. This implies storms could arrive from a northerly land trajectory, southward through BC. These nearly always lack moisture, and disappoint with snowfall. The only positive, is that precipitation would likely fall as all snow in the valleys. Amounts are likely to be on the low-side...If the large scale pattern evolves in this manner.  

A different model, the Euro EPS ensemble (50 runs of the same model, "tweaked" for different potential outcomes) is also pessimistic. Reading along the bottom, from left to right, you see the average daily precipitation value through the 10th of February. Not impressive, not at all-- right!  These amounts are much lower than what models showed the past couple days. I would not put too much faith in this particular run.

So, let's wrap this up on a positive note! Models continue to be quite volitile. A lot of variability and poor run to run consistency simply screams the message-- Uncertainty is very high! I do believe models will come into better agreement over the next couple days. Enough so, for another update toward the weekend. Check back!

I will end with the GFS ensemble of 30 runs. It still shows snow accumulation early next week. Not much, but there's potential. Fewer members indicate snow beyond a week, but you can see the chance is still there.